Introduction
Climate change is severely impacting rural agricultural communities, particularly in developing countries, by disrupting farming practices, reducing crop yields, and threatening livelihoods. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and extreme weather events are accelerating land degradation and economic instability. Nature-based solutions are urgently needed to build resilience. Trees play a vital role in climate change adaptation by cooling the environment, conserving soil moisture, and reducing land degradation. They protect against droughts and floods while supporting soil stability and groundwater recharge. Trees also provide alternative income through non-timber forest products. Integrating trees into landscapes enhances both resilience and sustainability. Amid climate-related challenges and unsustainable socio-economic practices, how do some communities manage to maintain or even improve their tree cover, making them more resilient to climate impacts than others? This study used the Data Powered Positive Deviance approach to explore community behaviors supporting tree preservation in Northern Ghana.
Image 1. On the way to a fenced plantation owned by small farmers in the Upper West Region in northern Ghana.
Conceptualization – The DPPD Methodology
The Data-Powered Positive Deviance (DPPD) framework builds on the Positive Deviance (PD) approach, which focuses on identifying individuals or communities that achieve exceptional outcomes despite facing similar challenges as others. Originally applied in Viet Nam to address child malnutrition, the PD approach has since gained traction across global development contexts, especially working with communities to co-create lasting change. Traditional PD methods depend heavily on primary data collection, which can be time-consuming and costly, particularly with large samples. However, the increasing availability of digital data now allows for a more efficient, scalable approach to identifying positive deviants. This shift has enabled the integration of large datasets into the PD methodology, giving rise to the DPPD framework. Those who stand out with notably positive outcomes are referred to as Positive Deviants (PD), while those with notably adverse outcomes are referred to as Negative Deviants (ND).
Context
In this study, the DPPD approach was used to identify communities in Ghana’s Upper West Region that have successfully preserved or increased tree cover between 2018 and 2023. By combining Earth Observation (EO) data with field-based qualitative research, the study pinpointed outlier communities and explored the local practices driving their success. EO data served as the “non-traditional” data input for mapping forest cover trends, while interviews provided “traditional” data insights into behaviors and strategies on the ground. This dual approach revealed community-specific innovations in forest governance and land management. Unlike top-down climate interventions, the DPPD method uncovers solutions rooted in local realities, increasing the likelihood of long-term impact and community acceptance.
Approach
The study followed a three-phase Data-Powered Positive Deviance (DPPD) methodology. Phase one assessed the method’s fit and defined the sampling frame using the 200 communities under the GIZ REACH project specifically those in the Upper West Region. Phase two identified positive and negative deviant communities using NDVI data from Sentinel-2 imagery, enhanced by clustering and z-score analysis. These findings were validated through visual inspection and supported by socio-economic data and propensity score matching (see also this blog article). In phase three, with support from GIZ Resilience Against Climate Change (EU-REACH) Project, qualitative data was gathered through focus group discussions and key informant interviews in 10 PD and 10 ND communities (Refer to Table 1). Thematic analysis in NVivo helped identify context-relevant, scalable forest preservation practices. This study has some limitations, including a small sample size and potential biases from unobserved factors, which may affect the generalizability and precision of the findings. Despite these constraints, it offers valuable insights and a strong basis for further research and adaptation in similar contexts.
| District | PDs | NDs |
|---|---|---|
| Wa East | Tuossa | Buffiama |
| Wa | Kpongu | |
| Wa West | Dorimon and Boro | |
| Nadowli – Kaleo | Loho and Papu | |
| Lawra | Tolibri, Pavuu, and Zukpiri | |
| Nandom | Tuopare | Goziiri |
| Sissala East | Nabulo | |
| Sissala West | Kusali, Kandia, Kwala, Bullu, and Liplime | |
| Lambussie | Dahile and Bangwon | |
| Total | 10 | 10 |
Positive Deviance Predictors (Why communities preserve their trees).
Many practices emerged from the analyses of the data collected and had to be sieved based on five identified predictors (refer to Table 2). The DPPD approach aims to scale innovative solutions from PD to ND communities by identifying a “golden mix” of the most promising, scalable practices. Selection was guided by four key criteria: transferability, affordability, sustainability, and local acceptance. These ensure that chosen interventions are practical, low-cost, environmentally sound, and already embedded (being practiced) in at least two PD communities. This approach enhances the likelihood of long-term adoption and meaningful impact across diverse settings.
| Predictor | Short Description | Example Communities |
|---|---|---|
| Economic Factors | Trees are preserved when seen as valuable economic assets, providing fruits, nuts, or leaves. Cash crops like cashew, mango, and shea enhance community incentives to protect trees. | Dorimon, Toussa, Papu |
| Cultural Beliefs and Norms | Sacred groves and spiritual beliefs act as informal protection systems. Communities with strong cultural taboos against cutting trees demonstrate more sustainable behaviors. | Boro, Dorimon, Papu |
| Land Management Practices | In the absence of formal land titles, communities use trees to demarcate farmland and other landed properties. This helps resolve land disputes and encourages the planting of beneficial trees. | Kpongu, Boro, Dorimon, Papu |
| Governance and Policies | Active forest committees enforce bylaws regulating tree use. Strong leadership and community involvement in enforcement enhance compliance and conservation efforts. | Dorimon, Papu, Toussa |
| Knowledge and Training | Communities exposed to training and peer learning on tree farming are more aware of the benefits of forest conservation and are more likely to adopt sustainable practices. | Toussa, Zukperi, Dorimon |
Activity Implementation and Mode
To promote forest preservation in Northern Ghana, three scalable interventions, termed the “golden mix”, were identified across economic, land management, and governance domains in line with predictors identified in Table 2. These include promoting tree product processing (e.g., shea, cashew) as alternative livelihoods, encouraging tree planting (especially to demarcate land boundaries), and establishing community forest committees. Each intervention is low-cost, context-specific, and demonstrated in multiple PD communities, ensuring local relevance and feasibility. Together, they offer a practical, diversified strategy for reducing deforestation. Their simplicity, sustainability, and peer-to-peer transferability support long-term adoption and impact.
An individual consultant will be commissioned within the period of September and November 2025 to facilitate the implementation of the three activities. Through close coordination with the District Assembly, Department of Agriculture, Agriculture Extension Agents, Local Government Substructures, and Traditional Authorities, inter alia, the consultant will coordinate the formation and strengthening of forest committees in the 10 ND communities and facilitate a peer learning activity in PD communities in clusters. Also, the consultant will coordinate the carrying out of alternative livelihood training activities in the processing of cashew and shea for selected groups in the 10 communities. Lastly, the consultant will coordinate the distribution and training on planting of distributed seedlings in the 10 ND communities for boundary demarcation. Embedding monitoring in the activities of Districts will ensure adaptation, learning, and long-term sustainability.
Conclusion and Upscaling, and Sustainability
This study demonstrated that effective, low-cost, and community-driven interventions already exist in some communities worth scaling to maintain tree cover, an effort towards climate adaptation and resilience. These practices are context-specific, socially accepted, and environmentally sustainable. They offer a solid foundation for broader forest governance and resilience efforts. To scale up at the district level, it is recommended that Assemblies integrate the identified “golden mix” into Medium Term Development Plans (MTDPs) and programming, as well as local planning frameworks. This includes promoting tree-based alternative livelihood options, tree planting with innovative meanings like boundary delineations, and the formation and strengthening of community forest committees. Partnerships with traditional authorities, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), Development Partners (DPs) in the region, and decentralized departments are essential for implementation and upscaling. Districts can invest in nurseries, training, and seedling distribution to support adoption.